{"id":1972,"date":"2024-11-12T09:35:11","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T08:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-03-19T11:46:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T10:46:21","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report &#8211; October 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The proximity of the elections in the United States<\/strong> clearly influenced market trends during October. <strong>Most polls predicted a victory for Donald Trump<\/strong>, which translated into movements in assets most sensitive to the likely decisions of the Republican candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fixed income experienced a significant increase in its yield levels<\/strong>, especially for longer maturities. The market perceives that <strong>Trump\u2019s victory will lead to higher inflation<\/strong> (due to <strong>larger fiscal deficits and tariffs<\/strong>), limiting the Fed\u2019s ability to cut rates. Additionally, <strong>positive macroeconomic data reinforced the idea of a soft landing<\/strong> with less need for monetary stimulus. The <strong>10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed the month at 4.28%<\/strong>, marking a 50 basis-point increase from the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although <strong>Trump\u2019s return to the presidency is the market\u2019s baseline scenario<\/strong>, a <strong>Harris victory should not result in significant volatility episodes<\/strong>, at least for equities. <strong>As long as neither party secures majorities in both the House and Senate<\/strong>, the market will remain satisfied since its primary concerns are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A sharp increase in tariffs by Trump<\/strong>, a measure requiring approval from both chambers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A tax hike by Harris<\/strong>, a move that could be blocked without approval from both the House and Senate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent inflation data continues to point to <strong>a decline in price levels<\/strong>, especially in Europe. <strong>Annual inflation in the eurozone dropped to +1.7%<\/strong> from the previous +2.2%, falling below the ECB&#8217;s target. Meanwhile, <strong>U.S. inflation stood at +2.4%<\/strong>, a tenth above expectations but down from the +2.5% recorded the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>ECB relied on controlled inflation and weak macroeconomic conditions to cut rates for the third time this year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The benchmark rate was lowered by <strong>25 basis points to 3.25%<\/strong>, a move fully anticipated by the market. <strong>Differences in the macroeconomic outlook between the U.S. and Europe<\/strong> have led to <strong>higher expectations of ECB cuts compared to those of the Fed<\/strong> in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the equity market, <strong>U.S. indices rallied during the first half of October<\/strong> due to broader gains, allowing the <strong>S&amp;P 500 to reach a new all-time high of 5,878 points.<\/strong> However, in the second half of the month, the typical <strong>negative seasonality of an election-year October emerged<\/strong>. Market breadth diminished, leaving the <strong>\u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d as the sole upward support<\/strong>, a factor insufficient to prevent the S&amp;P 500 from ending the month down <strong>-0.99%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>performance gap between U.S. and European markets continues to widen<\/strong> due to the <strong>poor results of European equities in October<\/strong>. The <strong>EuroStoxx 50 dropped by -3.46%<\/strong> during the month, bringing its year-to-date return for 2024 to <strong>+6.77%, far below the +19.62% posted by the U.S. S&amp;P 500.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By the end of October, <strong>six of the &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; had reported third-quarter 2024 earnings.<\/strong> Overall, results were positive, but some stocks saw significant declines due to <strong>weaker profit outlooks driven by increased AI-related spending<\/strong> (notably Microsoft and Meta).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lastly, <strong>geopolitical risk from the Middle East reintroduced episodes of volatility.<\/strong> In early October, <strong>Iran attacked Israeli territory by launching 200 ballistic missiles<\/strong>, which were successfully intercepted. The market awaited Israel&#8217;s retaliation, with speculation about potential oil targets, <strong>driving crude prices up by +13% for WTI.<\/strong> The retaliation came during the <strong>last weekend of October<\/strong> and was <strong>limited to Iranian military targets,<\/strong> which was well-received by the market. This de-escalated the risk event and <strong>allowed crude prices to erase all prior gains.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The proximity of the elections in the United States clearly influenced market trends during October. Most polls predicted a victory for Donald Trump, which translated into movements in assets most sensitive to the likely decisions of the Republican candidate. Fixed income experienced a significant increase in its yield levels, especially for longer maturities. The market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1267,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[74,75,76],"class_list":["post-1972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports","tag-nota-de-mercados-en","tag-octubre-en","tag-trump-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1972"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2493,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1972\/revisions\/2493"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}