{"id":2820,"date":"2025-07-08T11:58:39","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T09:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-junio-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-08T12:11:45","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T10:11:45","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-junio-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-junio-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report \u2013 June 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite the increase in geopolitical tension<\/strong>, U.S. stock markets<\/strong> continued to rise and hit new all-time highs<\/strong>. Conversely, major European indices saw slight corrections<\/strong>. A similar pattern was seen in the bond market<\/strong>, with the U.S. yield curve shifting upwards<\/strong> following bond price increases<\/strong>, while European curves experienced slight price declines<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Israeli attack on nuclear facilities in Iran on June 13<\/strong> reignited geopolitical risk<\/strong>. Initially, the market reaction was mild, focusing on the price of oil<\/strong>. The WTI benchmark barrel rose by +14%<\/strong>, raising concerns of a global inflation spike<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The market\u2019s main concern<\/strong> centered on a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, a route for about 30% of the world\u2019s oil consumption<\/strong>. However, due to both military capabilities<\/strong> and potential retaliation by other producing countries<\/strong>, the likelihood of closing Hormuz faded<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


On Saturday, June 21, the U.S. bombed Iran<\/strong>, joining the Israeli offensive, which led to stock market sell-offs<\/strong> and crude oil buying<\/strong> during the Monday, June 23<\/strong> session. However, the following day, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the region<\/strong>, which revived risk appetite<\/strong>, allowing Wall Street to resume its bullish trend<\/strong> and wiping out crude oil gains<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


During the final days of June<\/strong>, U.S. stock indices<\/strong> managed to break resistance levels<\/strong>, reaching new historical highs<\/strong>. The S&P 500 hit 6,215 points for the first time ever<\/strong> during the last session of the month. This resulted in a +4.96% return in June<\/strong> and +5.50% year-to-date<\/strong>. The strong performance of large-cap tech stocks (especially NVIDIA)<\/strong> was key.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Meanwhile, European stock markets did not follow the U.S. indices<\/strong>. The Eurostoxx-50 fell -1.18% in June<\/strong>, though it closed above monthly lows. This has helped narrow the performance gap between European and American equities<\/strong> considerably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The ECB cut rates for the fourth consecutive time this year<\/strong>, lowering the Eurozone benchmark rate to 2.0%<\/strong> with a 25-basis-point cut<\/strong>. The move was fully priced in, but the market disliked Lagarde\u2019s post-announcement remarks<\/strong>, which suggested the rate-cutting cycle may be over<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Conversely, the U.S. curve performed well in June<\/strong>, showing a notable downward shift<\/strong>. The 10-year U.S. yield fell from 4.40% in May to 4.23% at the end of June<\/strong>, implying a +1.42% price gain<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Fed kept rates at 4.50%<\/strong>, as it had in the previous 3 meetings. Afterward, Donald Trump verbally attacked Powell<\/strong>, claiming the U.S. economy needs rate cuts of 200 to 300 basis points<\/strong>. Powell will remain in office until May 2026<\/strong>, but the market expects Trump to name a successor soon<\/strong>. A Trump-aligned replacement would likely favor lower rates<\/strong>, potentially shifting the U.S. curve downward<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The dollar continues to depreciate against other currencies<\/strong>. The EUR\/USD exchange rate hit a new annual high of 1.178<\/strong>, a level unseen since September 2021<\/strong>. As a result, the EUR\/USD pair ended the first half up +13.84%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


On the macroeconomic front<\/strong>, inflation levels remain fully under control<\/strong>. In Europe, annual inflation was +1.90%<\/strong>, below the ECB\u2019s 2.0% target<\/strong>. In the U.S., inflation met forecasts at +2.4%<\/strong>, while core inflation came in below market expectations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The U.S. GDP for Q1 was revised downward for a second time<\/strong>, from -0.20% to -0.50%, due to weaker service sector consumption<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Finally, although Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariff extension ends in July<\/strong>, no new trade deals have been finalized between the U.S. and other countries<\/strong>. Only China confirmed a minimum agreement signed in Geneva<\/strong>, resuming rare earth exports to the U.S.<\/strong> and easing semiconductor restrictions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n