{"id":3109,"date":"2025-09-08T08:58:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T06:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-agosto-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-08T09:03:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T07:03:29","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-agosto-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-agosto-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report – August 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Although August was a low-volatility month<\/strong>, the first session saw significant declines in equities<\/strong>. Employment figures highlighted the true state of the U.S. labor market<\/strong>. July data came in below expectations, but what really concerned the market was the downward revision of the previous two months\u2019 figures<\/strong>. The 147,000 jobs initially reported in June were adjusted down to 14,000<\/strong>, while May\u2019s data were revised from 144,000 to 19,000 jobs<\/strong>. This implies a sharp slowdown in U.S. job creation<\/strong>, which led the S&P-500 to drop -1.60%<\/strong> on the data release day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another relevant highlight in August was Jackson Hole<\/strong>. The annual symposium of central bankers in the U.S. had as its clear protagonist Powell and his speech on monetary policy<\/strong>. The Fed Chair clearly stated that the most likely outcome is a first rate cut in September in the U.S.<\/strong> This acted as a bullish catalyst for equities and bonds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European politics<\/strong> created a new source of uncertainty after the vote of confidence announced by the French Prime Minister<\/strong>. The goal is to validate the fiscal adjustment designed by the French government<\/strong>, still pending budget approval. The vote of confidence will take place on September 8<\/strong>, and the consequences of its outcome are highly uncertain<\/strong>, which translated into declines in European equities<\/strong> and a rise in EUR yield curves<\/strong> during the last week of August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last of the Magnificent 7<\/strong> to report earnings was NVIDIA<\/strong>. The U.S. tech giant\u2019s second-quarter figures once again set records in revenue and profits<\/strong>. However, while growth remains very strong (revenue +56%<\/strong>), the pace of expansion is slowing<\/strong> progressively. This led to declines in NVIDIA\u2019s share price<\/strong> in the session following the results release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. macro data<\/strong> still show no impact from tariffs<\/strong>. Inflation came in below expectations<\/strong> (unchanged at +2.7% vs. +2.8% expected), while Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the exception of some European indices, equities closed August higher<\/strong>. The U.S. benchmarks stood out, reaching new all-time highs<\/strong>. The S&P-500 hit 6,500 points for the first time, posting a +2.03% monthly gain<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, the performance gap favoring Europe<\/strong> seen throughout 2025 has been erased<\/strong>. The S&P-500 is up +9.84% YTD<\/strong>, while the Eurostoxx-50 is up +9.31%<\/strong>. It is worth noting that in March the European index had outperformed the U.S. by +15%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Magnificent 7<\/strong> and AI-related technology<\/strong> were once again key. NVIDIA reached a market cap of USD 4.5 trillion<\/strong>, while the group accounts for more than one-third of the S&P-500\u2019s YTD performance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fixed income<\/strong> showed a mixed performance in August<\/strong>. The U.S. yield curve shifted downward<\/strong>, while its European peers were penalized by political uncertainty in France<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weak U.S. jobs report<\/strong> and Powell\u2019s statements at Jackson Hole<\/strong> pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4.20%<\/strong>. All maturities ended August with lower yields than in the previous month<\/strong>. This has led to an almost fully priced-in rate cut by the Fed at the September meeting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for euro-denominated fixed income<\/strong>, the European curves<\/strong> saw yield increases at the long end<\/strong>, especially after the vote of confidence announcement in France<\/strong>. As of end-August, the market does not price in further rate moves by the ECB<\/strong> over the remaining four months of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the EUR\/USD exchange rate<\/strong> traded in a sideways range<\/strong> throughout the month, halting the downtrend seen in July<\/strong>. The pair fluctuated between 1.175 and 1.155 EUR\/USD<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n