{"id":3349,"date":"2025-11-10T16:12:57","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T15:12:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T16:12:57","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T15:12:57","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report \u2013 October 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the United States, <strong>Democrats and Republicans failed to reach an agreement on funding for the new fiscal year<\/strong>. This led to the <strong>operational shutdown of the U.S. government<\/strong>, resulting in the <strong>suspension of work and pay for non-essential employees<\/strong>. The situation persisted throughout the month, with an estimated <strong>weekly cost of -0.2% of GDP<\/strong>. Despite this, <strong>there was no direct impact on markets<\/strong>. The publication of economic data depends on public agencies, which meant an <strong>absence of official macroeconomic data in October<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The only labor market figure published came from private firm <strong>ADP<\/strong>, showing a <strong>loss of 35,000 jobs<\/strong> compared to expectations of a gain of 51,000. In addition, the <strong>previous month was revised down<\/strong>, also showing contraction. <strong>This was the worst figure since the pandemic<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Volatility increased significantly from October 10<\/strong>, when <strong>Donald Trump reactivated the threat of new tariffs against China<\/strong>. The Asian giant <strong>tightened controls on rare earth exports<\/strong>, prompting Trump to propose a <strong>100% tariff on Chinese products<\/strong> and <strong>cancel the meeting with Xi Jinping<\/strong> scheduled in two weeks. This caused <strong>equity declines and a rally in bonds<\/strong>, which acted as <strong>safe-haven assets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That same weekend, <strong>Trump softened his tone<\/strong>, and during the week both he and <strong>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent<\/strong> hinted at a <strong>new deal with China<\/strong>. At the end of October, the <strong>meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea<\/strong> took place, resulting in a <strong>12-month extension of the trade truce<\/strong>. China <strong>withdrew new measures on rare earth exports<\/strong> and <strong>committed to restoring soybean imports from the U.S.<\/strong>, while <strong>the U.S. agreed not to raise tariffs<\/strong> on Chinese goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Geopolitics<\/strong> was influenced by two key developments:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In <strong>France<\/strong>, the political situation early in October created uncertainty, especially for French assets. Newly appointed Prime Minister <strong>S\u00e9bastien Lecornu<\/strong> resigned only to be reappointed. <strong>Macron granted him full authority<\/strong> to calm the political landscape. The <strong>pension reform was suspended until 2028<\/strong>, after the presidential elections. Lecornu <strong>survived two motions of no confidence<\/strong>, reducing political noise. Nevertheless, <strong>S&amp;P downgraded France\u2019s sovereign rating from AA- to A+<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Donald Trump canceled his meeting with Vladimir Putin<\/strong> after the latter refused a <strong>ceasefire in Ukraine<\/strong>. Both the U.S. and Europe <strong>increased sanctions on Russia<\/strong>, particularly on <strong>oil exports<\/strong>. The <strong>commodity spiked sharply<\/strong> after nearing <strong>annual lows around $55 per barrel (WTI)<\/strong>. Overall, the month ended with <strong>a -2.23% decline<\/strong>, bringing <strong>WTI down -14.97% for the year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the <strong>CPI for September<\/strong> was exceptionally calculated, as it is used to <strong>adjust pensions and social security benefits<\/strong>. The figure came in <strong>better than expected (+3.0% vs +3.10%)<\/strong>, and the <strong>core CPI<\/strong> showed a similar pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the penultimate session of the month, the <strong>Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps<\/strong> for the second time this year, bringing the benchmark rate to <strong>4.0%<\/strong>. <strong>Powell\u2019s subsequent remarks<\/strong> surprised markets by <strong>calling for caution regarding further cuts<\/strong> in the final 2025 meeting, which <strong>pushed yields higher along the U.S. curve<\/strong>. Additionally, the Fed announced the <strong>end of Quantitative Tightening<\/strong>, having <strong>reduced its balance sheet from $8.96 trillion in March 2022 to $6.59 trillion in October 2025<\/strong>. The program <strong>will conclude on December 1<\/strong>, which should <strong>improve U.S. money and bond markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the <strong>European Central Bank kept rates unchanged at 2.0%<\/strong>, with <strong>no further moves expected<\/strong> in upcoming meetings or in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>U.S. equity market<\/strong> posted its <strong>sixth consecutive monthly gain<\/strong>. The <strong>S&amp;P 500 rose +2.27%<\/strong>, reaching a <strong>new all-time high at 6,920 points<\/strong>, with a <strong>year-to-date gain of +16.30%<\/strong>. <strong>The \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d and strong demand for AI-related companies<\/strong> remain the main drivers. <strong>NVIDIA stood out as the first company in history to reach a $5 trillion market capitalization<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>European indices<\/strong> also closed with <strong>similar gains<\/strong>, despite France\u2019s political noise. The <strong>Eurostoxx-50 advanced +2.39%<\/strong>, bringing its <strong>year-to-date return to +15.65%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In <strong>fixed income<\/strong>, the <strong>U.S. yield curve<\/strong> performed <strong>strongly<\/strong>, pricing in rate cuts and acting as a <strong>safe haven amid tariff concerns<\/strong>. The <strong>10-year Treasury<\/strong> briefly traded <strong>below 4.0%<\/strong>, though Powell\u2019s remarks later <strong>triggered renewed selling pressure<\/strong>. <strong>European curves<\/strong> also <strong>rose in price<\/strong>, shifting <strong>downward in parallel<\/strong>, which <strong>favored duration returns<\/strong>. The <strong>German 10-year yield<\/strong> ended the month at <strong>2.63% (down from 2.71%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, in <strong>foreign exchange markets<\/strong>, the <strong>U.S. dollar continued to strengthen<\/strong>, closing October at <strong>1.1537 EUR\/USD (+1.70%)<\/strong>. The <strong>easing of tensions with China<\/strong> and the <strong>Fed\u2019s hawkish tone<\/strong> were the main drivers of this appreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Informe-Mensual-de-Mercados-Octubre-2025.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Informe Mensual de Mercados - Octubre 2025.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-ea4d2c82-e170-4aa2-bc04-5b3cb598511b\" href=\"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Informe-Mensual-de-Mercados-Octubre-2025.pdf\">Informe Mensual de Mercados &#8211; Octubre 2025<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Informe-Mensual-de-Mercados-Octubre-2025.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-ea4d2c82-e170-4aa2-bc04-5b3cb598511b\">Descarga<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Did you find this\u00a0<strong>Monthly Market Report \u2013 October 2025<\/strong>\u00a0useful? If you\u2019re interested in staying up to date with economic analysis and market trends, we invite you to explore other recent reports on our blog:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Monthly Market Report \u2013 September 2025<\/strong>:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-septiembre-2025\/\">Lee m\u00e1s aqu\u00ed<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Monthly Market Report \u2013 August 2025<\/strong>:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-agosto-2025\/\">Lee m\u00e1s aqu\u00ed<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mes positivo para bolsas y bonos a pesar del cierre del Gobierno USA, el tono duro de la Fed y el regreso del ruido arancelario<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1267,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[74,70,76],"class_list":["post-3349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports","tag-nota-de-mercados-en","tag-talenta-gestion-en","tag-trump-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3349"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3349\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3352,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3349\/revisions\/3352"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}