{"id":4282,"date":"2026-07-15T13:41:30","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T11:41:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-enero-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T13:59:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T11:59:44","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-enero-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-enero-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report \u2013 January 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The increase in geopolitical risk<\/strong> was one of the main drivers<\/strong> behind market movements during the first month of 2026. In addition to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela<\/strong>, Trump’s renewed interest in taking control of Greenland<\/strong>, and the political tensions in Iran<\/strong> triggered several episodes of market volatility throughout January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equity markets ended the month in positive territory<\/strong> despite the geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 gained 1.37%<\/strong>, while the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 2.70%<\/strong>. The bullish momentum seen in previous months continued, with cyclical sectors outperforming large-cap technology stocks<\/strong>. Performance among the Magnificent Seven<\/strong> was mixed, with Microsoft (-11.03%)<\/strong> underperforming, while Meta (+8.55%)<\/strong> and Alphabet (+7.94%)<\/strong> posted solid gains. January’s rally also pushed the S&P 500 above the 7,000-point mark for the first time in history<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve (Fed)<\/strong> kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%<\/strong>, in line with market expectations. Only two of the twelve voting members<\/strong> supported a rate cut, while the remaining ten favored no change. Jerome Powell’s comments<\/strong> were well received, as he continued to emphasize the labor market<\/strong> while characterizing any inflationary impact from Trump’s tariffs<\/strong> as temporary<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump also announced Kevin Warsh<\/strong> as his nominee to succeed Powell as Fed Chair<\/strong>. Although closely aligned with the Republican Party, Warsh was considered relatively hawkish<\/strong> during his previous tenure as a Fed Governor, leading markets to believe that Trump’s influence over monetary policy will likely remain limited<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yield curves ended the month largely unchanged<\/strong>, although U.S. Treasury yields remained volatile<\/strong>. The 10-year Treasury yield<\/strong> climbed above 4.20%<\/strong> for the first time since August, reaching an intraday high of 4.31%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rise in Japanese government bond yields<\/strong>, together with the spillover effect across global fixed-income markets<\/strong>, was the main negative catalyst for bonds in January. Japan’s Prime Minister called a snap election<\/strong> while advocating expansionary fiscal policies<\/strong>, implying higher public spending<\/strong> in a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio close to 235%<\/strong> and rising inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a macroeconomic perspective, U.S. inflation remained stable at 2.7% year-over-year<\/strong>, while core inflation eased to 2.6%<\/strong>, its lowest level since April 2021<\/strong>. In Europe, headline inflation fell to 1.70%<\/strong>, below the European Central Bank’s target<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commodity markets experienced significant volatility.<\/strong> WTI crude oil<\/strong> traded as high as USD 66.48 per barrel<\/strong>, bringing its year-to-date gain to 15.78%<\/strong>, driven by geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel<\/strong>. Markets also remained focused on the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, through which around 20% of global oil supply<\/strong> passes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precious metals reversed sharply<\/strong> after strong gains earlier in the month. Kevin Warsh’s nomination<\/strong> reduced part of gold’s safe-haven appeal<\/strong>, while profit-taking accelerated the correction, resulting in a 9.0% decline in gold prices<\/strong> during the final trading session of January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the foreign exchange market<\/strong>, the U.S. dollar weakened<\/strong> once again, allowing EUR\/USD to briefly trade above 1.20<\/strong> for the first time since September 2021. The move was driven by the Greenland dispute<\/strong>, speculation over foreign sales of U.S. assets<\/strong>, and Trump’s remarks downplaying dollar weakness<\/strong>. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent<\/strong> reaffirmed that a strong dollar remains a priority<\/strong> for the United States. As a result, EUR\/USD returned to its trading range<\/strong> established since mid-2025 and closed January at 1.1851<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n