{"id":4336,"date":"2026-07-15T16:44:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T14:44:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-junio-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T16:50:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T14:50:25","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-junio-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-junio-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report \u2013 June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After months of failed negotiations and rising tensions<\/strong>, June brought the materialization of the agreement between the United States and Iran<\/strong>. On Wednesday, June 17, a provisional 14-point agreement was signed electronically<\/strong>, opening a 60-day period for negotiations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agreement includes the end of military operations<\/strong>, the termination of the maritime blockade<\/strong>, the lifting of sanctions and release of frozen Iranian assets<\/strong>, Iran\u2019s commitment to renounce nuclear weapons<\/strong>, and a USD 300 billion reconstruction plan<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact on oil prices was immediate<\/strong>, with three consecutive weeks of declines<\/strong>. Brent crude closed June at USD 72.11 per barrel<\/strong>, fully recovering the levels seen before the start of the war at the end of February. From the May highs above USD 126<\/strong>, crude oil has corrected by approximately 43%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

June was also a relevant month regarding monetary policy<\/strong>. The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%<\/strong> with a balanced message, conditioning future rate hikes on the possibility of second-round inflation effects<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the United States, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%<\/strong> at the first meeting of Kevin Warsh as chairman<\/strong>. His tone was more hawkish than expected<\/strong>, highlighting his commitment to the 2.0% inflation target<\/strong>. A large portion of Fed members positioned themselves in favor of raising rates in 2026<\/strong>, while only one member supported rate cuts. This represents an important shift compared with the beginning of the year and previous months<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The official U.S. employment figure reached +172,000 new jobs<\/strong>, almost double the market expectation. The strong performance of the U.S. economy<\/strong> reinforced expectations of a restrictive monetary policy<\/strong>, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.50%<\/strong> and the 30-year yield close to 5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, during the second half of the month, the tone changed completely<\/strong>: the decline in oil prices reduced inflationary pressure<\/strong> and allowed bonds to recover. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended June near 4.37%<\/strong>, below May\u2019s closing levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding U.S. macroeconomic data<\/strong>, price-related indicators continued to rise. Headline CPI increased by +4.20% year-on-year<\/strong>, with the entire increase compared with the end of February explained by the higher energy costs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to +2.1% from +1.6% previously<\/strong>. This shows that the Iran conflict has been limited to an inflationary impact in the United States<\/strong>, without affecting economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European yield curves experienced a more pronounced improvement<\/strong>, especially in the medium and long-term segments. Bonds with maturities above 10 years are now trading with yields below their levels at the start of the year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations of further ECB rate hikes have been significantly reduced<\/strong>, moving away from the three increases that had been priced in at certain points in May<\/strong>. The sharp decline in oil prices<\/strong> and Lagarde\u2019s accommodative tone<\/strong> were the main factors behind this shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EUR\/USD exchange rate fell to 1.1325<\/strong>, its lowest level since February 2025. The strength of the U.S. economy<\/strong>, together with a Fed more inclined to raise rates<\/strong>, were the main positive catalysts for the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding equity markets<\/strong>, indices showed mixed performances<\/strong>. While European stock markets rebounded strongly with gains above 4.50%<\/strong> thanks to easing tensions in Iran and lower oil prices, U.S. indices were penalized by selling pressure in the Magnificent Seven<\/strong> and growing valuation concerns in certain technology sectors, particularly semiconductors<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After continuing the upward trend seen in previous months, the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs during the first sessions of June<\/strong>, touching 7,620 points<\/strong>. Subsequently, markets experienced corrections and increased volatility<\/strong>, which became the dominant trend throughout the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main U.S. index closed near the 7,500-point level<\/strong>, well above June lows, but recorded a monthly decline of -1.06%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a notable event, SpaceX went public, reaching a valuation above USD 2 trillion<\/strong>, and issued USD 25 billion in debt<\/strong>, with demand three times higher than the amount offered<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n