{"id":4724,"date":"2026-11-10T13:21:54","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T12:21:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-11-10T13:24:37","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T12:24:37","slug":"informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talentagestion.es\/en\/informe-mensual-de-mercados-octubre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Market Report \u2013 October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Oil continued its upward trend in October, closing the month close to its annual highs<\/strong>. Brent crude reached $118 per barrel<\/strong> amid an increase in Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while several oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked by Houthi forces. Additionally, during the final trading sessions, rumours of an imminent joint attack by the US and Israel on Iran<\/strong> following the US midterm elections were given credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The higher cost of energy<\/strong> is beginning to have a significant impact on inflation. The inflation rate in the United States stood at +3.70%<\/strong>, while the figure for the eurozone reached +3.80%<\/strong>. The annual increase is almost entirely attributable to higher fuel prices, particularly diesel<\/strong>, which remained close to its historical highs throughout October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the above, fixed income managed to halt the poor performance<\/strong> recorded over the previous two months. The US 10-year benchmark yield reached 5.36%<\/strong> during the first half of October, before embarking on a sharp decline that brought it down to 4.93%<\/strong> by the end of the month. In Europe, German government debt followed a similar pattern, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling from 3.64% to 3.32%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason behind increased demand for fixed income was its renewed appeal as a safe-haven asset<\/strong>. In October, fresh doubts emerged regarding the current artificial intelligence business model. Concerns have shifted from questioning the ability to monetise the substantial investments made to raising doubts about the growing levels of debt and financing used by certain companies<\/strong>. This led to selling pressure on bonds linked to technology companies, with investors redirecting their capital towards government debt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive performance of government bonds was reinforced by the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged<\/strong> at their October meetings. The benchmark interest rate in the US remains at 4.0%<\/strong>, while its European equivalent stands at 2.50%<\/strong>. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in interest rate hikes by both institutions at their final meetings of the year<\/strong>, scheduled for December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exception to the gains in fixed income was France<\/strong>, where bond yields rose to levels not seen since 2002. The risk premium increased significantly, exceeding 170 basis points<\/strong>, a level not reached since 2011. Doubts persist regarding the country’s fiscal and political viability. The first vote on budget revenues had to be postponed after a total of 2,600 amendments were submitted. This highlights the lack of political willingness to reach agreements<\/strong>, while street protests also had a negative impact on French government debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equity markets lost momentum as doubts surrounding technology companies linked to AI intensified. The S&P 500 fell by 0.93%<\/strong>, while the Nasdaq-100 dropped by 6.65%<\/strong> in October. This movement resulted in a significant rotation out of technology stocks and into defensive sectors<\/strong>, explaining why the Dow Jones closed the month in positive territory, gaining 1.70%<\/strong>. In Europe, equity markets delivered mixed performances. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 2.20%<\/strong>, while Germany’s DAX 30 managed to gain 2.46%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 remains within the sideways trading range<\/strong> it has been forming since July, while the Euro Stoxx 50 continues its correction<\/strong>, which began during the same month. Cumulative returns for 2026 stand at +10.73% and +5.87%<\/strong>, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the foreign exchange market, the US dollar continued to gain ground against the euro<\/strong>, pushing the exchange rate between the two currencies below 1.12 EUR\/USD<\/strong> for the first time since 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n