Monthly Market Report – June 2026
After months of failed negotiations and rising tensions, June brought the materialization of the agreement between the United States and Iran. On Wednesday, June 17, a provisional 14-point agreement was signed electronically, opening a 60-day period for negotiations.
The agreement includes the end of military operations, the termination of the maritime blockade, the lifting of sanctions and release of frozen Iranian assets, Iran’s commitment to renounce nuclear weapons, and a USD 300 billion reconstruction plan.
The impact on oil prices was immediate, with three consecutive weeks of declines. Brent crude closed June at USD 72.11 per barrel, fully recovering the levels seen before the start of the war at the end of February. From the May highs above USD 126, crude oil has corrected by approximately 43%.
June was also a relevant month regarding monetary policy. The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% with a balanced message, conditioning future rate hikes on the possibility of second-round inflation effects.
In the United States, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75% at the first meeting of Kevin Warsh as chairman. His tone was more hawkish than expected, highlighting his commitment to the 2.0% inflation target. A large portion of Fed members positioned themselves in favor of raising rates in 2026, while only one member supported rate cuts. This represents an important shift compared with the beginning of the year and previous months.
The official U.S. employment figure reached +172,000 new jobs, almost double the market expectation. The strong performance of the U.S. economy reinforced expectations of a restrictive monetary policy, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.50% and the 30-year yield close to 5%.
However, during the second half of the month, the tone changed completely: the decline in oil prices reduced inflationary pressure and allowed bonds to recover. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended June near 4.37%, below May’s closing levels.
Regarding U.S. macroeconomic data, price-related indicators continued to rise. Headline CPI increased by +4.20% year-on-year, with the entire increase compared with the end of February explained by the higher energy costs.
First-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to +2.1% from +1.6% previously. This shows that the Iran conflict has been limited to an inflationary impact in the United States, without affecting economic growth.
European yield curves experienced a more pronounced improvement, especially in the medium and long-term segments. Bonds with maturities above 10 years are now trading with yields below their levels at the start of the year.
Expectations of further ECB rate hikes have been significantly reduced, moving away from the three increases that had been priced in at certain points in May. The sharp decline in oil prices and Lagarde’s accommodative tone were the main factors behind this shift.
The EUR/USD exchange rate fell to 1.1325, its lowest level since February 2025. The strength of the U.S. economy, together with a Fed more inclined to raise rates, were the main positive catalysts for the dollar.
Regarding equity markets, indices showed mixed performances. While European stock markets rebounded strongly with gains above 4.50% thanks to easing tensions in Iran and lower oil prices, U.S. indices were penalized by selling pressure in the Magnificent Seven and growing valuation concerns in certain technology sectors, particularly semiconductors.
After continuing the upward trend seen in previous months, the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs during the first sessions of June, touching 7,620 points. Subsequently, markets experienced corrections and increased volatility, which became the dominant trend throughout the month.
The main U.S. index closed near the 7,500-point level, well above June lows, but recorded a monthly decline of -1.06%.
As a notable event, SpaceX went public, reaching a valuation above USD 2 trillion, and issued USD 25 billion in debt, with demand three times higher than the amount offered.