Monthly Market Report – November 2025

Equities and bonds were volatile this month due to the lack of clarity from Fed members regarding the December rate cut and the uncertainty surrounding Artificial Intelligence.

In the second week of November, the U.S. government shutdown came to an end. With a duration of 43 days, it became the longest in history. However, the market received the news cautiously as many budget funding segments will need to be reviewed in January, implying a possible new government shutdown.

During the second and third weeks of the month, significant declines occurred. Doubts emerged regarding Artificial Intelligence, particularly concerning the ability to monetize the investment being made. Additionally, concerns grew about the debt levels some companies are reaching, as well as cross-financing and interlinked contracts within the sector.

Two other aspects acted as bearish catalysts. First, comments from the CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs describing a possible significant market correction in the medium term as normal. Added to this were doubts about the Fed’s decision in its December meeting, following cautious statements from several members regarding a possible third rate cut in 2025.

Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court initiated the review of the legality of tariffs, which generated volatility spikes, although without continuity. It cannot be ruled out that the Court declares the tariffs illegal, which, if it happens, would imply their reimbursement, creating a significant fiscal and logistical problem for the Trump administration.

The results of NVIDIA (the company with the highest weight in U.S. indices) were released after market close on November 19. The figures again exceeded expectations, showing revenues of USD 57 billion, a gross margin of 73.6%, and operating profit growing 62% year-on-year. Despite the strong results, the stock fell the following day.

After all this, the S&P-500 declined -4.41% in the month while the Nasdaq-100 registered a maximum monthly drop of -6.98%. European indices followed the U.S. trend but with smaller movements. Bonds also experienced price declines, with the U.S. 10-year yield rising to 4.16%.

In the final week of November, the downward trend reversed. Equity markets rebounded continuously, recovering almost all losses. Two factors explain this: 1. The arrival at key technical levels on the S&P-500 chart. 2. Statements by John C. Williams (President of the New York Fed) expressing support for a December rate cut. Powell and Williams are very aligned, which the market interpreted as favorable ahead of the December Fed meeting.

USD and EUR yield curves behaved differently. While U.S. bonds ended November with lower yield levels, European debt experienced price declines, particularly in the long end of the curve.

Regarding currencies, the exchange rate between the EUR and USD continues to respect the ranges marked since June. EUR/USD fell to 1.15 before rebounding, a movement that occurred twice in November.

Finally, at the geopolitical level, the U.S. initiative to reach a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia stands out. Donald Trump presented a 28-point plan that included the cession of Ukrainian territories, Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO, and U.S. and European support for Zelensky’s government.

Informe Mensual de Mercados - Noviembre 2025Descarga

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